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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.