A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
